L, V and U Recessions

These are the types of recessions according to economists worldwide; i.e. L-shaped, V-shaped and U-shaped ones.

L-shape recession is a recession that goes down and then stays there for a long period of time without a recovery. It could last for 20 years like it happened in Japan. A V-shape recession goes down pretty fast and recovers in very less time. A U-shape recession goes down slowly and then stays there for a few years before recovering slowly. It could last anywhere from 2-10 years, like in the 70s in US where it lasted for 8 years.

Most of the times, it is the economic policy adopted by a government before recession, which determines what type of recession it is; where wrongly calibrated economic policies leading to L-shape recessions, the worst of all.

Now, EMIs can be covered on Job Loss

The global economic downturn has created uncertainty in employment in India as well. In such a situation, what if one has a couple of EMIs to pay, say home loan and auto loan, when the retrenchment strikes?

Like it exists in other developed countries, ICICI Lombard has introduced in India, a cover that will pay three equated monthly installments (EMIs) on any individual loan when the policy holder faces job loss. Considering the severity of the economic situation, ICICI Lombard is even reviewing the possibility of increasing the three month EMI cover.

The job loss cover is sold as an add-on cover with the company’s critical illness policy. However, one thing to be noted is that the policy does not cover retrenchment due to underperformance, voluntary resignation or early retirement. But then, it’s a great product that came at a crucial time.

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Indian Inflation Rate @ 0.44%

India’s WPI inflation rate fell to an recent low of 0.44% for the year ended March 7, 2009. What is more comforting is the fall in prices of food articles, which greatly eluded the public in the previous declines.

Quoting ToI, the higher base effect along with low demand in the economy is expected to keep inflation in negative territory for 5 to 6 months. This, if happened, will make us witness deflation after a very long time.

One thing that I noticed in WPI is the fall in jet fuel prices by 8%. With this it’s high time that the flight operators reduce their fuel surcharge which currently stands at more than 2000 rupees. And, I guess it would require an intervention from the government to reduce the fuel surcharge amount, which masquerades as ‘taxes’ to the government in flight booking receipts.

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